Business Continuity Plan for Tour Operator in a Crisis of COVID 19 in Thailand

This article aims to study and analyze the concepts and theories of the business continuity plan and the crisis management concept to be used as a guideline for the survival of tour operators from the COVID 19 outbreak in Thailand. According to the Scott Guidelines (1990); (2006) for data selection criteria, Content was analyzed and synthesized from secondary data. The study found that the business continuity management plan of small and medium tour operators does not yet have a systematic planning process. Nevertheless, there were steps to resolve the problem in the short term. Furthermore, it requires cooperation in many sectors of business stakeholders. Ten step-by-step business continuity plan (BCP) in critical conditions was used. While BCP for the epidemic COVID 19 outbreak focusing on the PPRR model: 1) Prevention, 2) Preparation, 3) Response, and 4) Recovery corresponding to the efficient communication, maintenance of health and hygiene, digital and technology linkage, social distancing, and compliance with the COVID-19 control measures following the policies of the respective governments. Moreover, there were four elements for the business continuity plan: 1) Risk Management Plan, 2) Business Impact Analysis, 3) Incident Response Plan and 4) Recovery Plan.


Introduction
The World Economic Forum's statistics report on the country's competitiveness in tourism business 2019 found that Thailand has 35.5 million foreign tourists entering the country annually, with a total of $ 1,620 spent on tourism. According to the research, US dollars per person accounted for $ 50.75 billion in tourism to the country, equal to 9.6% of Thailand's GDP, and employed in the service sector labor market for 2.44 million people in the country [1]. On High-Growth SME Support Initiatives in Nine Countries: Analysis, Categorization, and Recommendations, it was found that promoting SMEs with high growth must be a specific policy (High Growth SMEs Policy) in addition to the general SMEs promotion policy (SMEs Policy), which is Accelerator (Acceleration Factor) economic expansion of that country. [2] For Thailand, several supporting factors have driven the Thai Tourism Industry to continue to grow. By the National Strategy Framework, modern SMEs can access capital more easily by promoting competitiveness for businesses to have potential. This is highly volatile, both externally and internally, especially in rapidly changing global situations and many uncertainties. That cannot be predicted, such as the dispute between the United States and Iran. US-China trade war, Australian bushfires, Volcanic eruptions in the Philippines, Earthquakes in Turkey, Floods in Brazil, Locusts in North Africa. Lassa fever occurs in Nigeria, PM2.5 dust in Thailand, and the global epidemic of coronavirus disease  has changed humanity's dynamics and lives worldwide. Living in a New normal. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on life and livelihoods worldwide is beyond measure as the war against the virus is ongoing, involving more than 210 countries, with more than 428,652 deaths and infections. The infection is estimated to be 7.7 million. [3] It continues for the first time this epidemic has occurred, a global crisis that threatens human existence after World War II. Moreover, it has wide range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. The Thai tourism industry was also directly affected. This does not include digital transformation and technology disruption, and past crises such as the Persian Gulf War. Tom Yam Goong Crisis in Thailand, Hamburger Crisis in the USA, Tsunami in Japan, SARS and Bird Flu in China, Political Crisis of Yellow-Red Shirt., etc. For this reason, the study of Business Continuity Plan (BCP) and crisis management. It is an important and necessary tool for tour operators of the Thai tourism industry in a critical situation and a guideline for forecasting directions and finding strategies for planning the rehabilitation of business operations after the crisis.

Objective
To study and analyze the conceptual and theories of the Business Continuity Plan and Crisis Management concept and apply it to be a guideline for Tour Operators survival from a COVID 19 outbreak situation in Thailand.

Study Methods
To achieve the objective of this study. It had established criteria for document selection according to Scott's guidelines (1990); (2006) as follows: 1) Authenticity, 2) Credibility, 3) Representativeness, and 4) Meaning. [4] The ISSN: 00333077 1459 www.psychologyandeducation.net content scope focuses on the theoretical concepts related to Business Continuity Plan, Crisis Management, Tour Business, and COVID 19 outbreak situation, used as a tool for analysis and synthesis. The educational process was as follows: 1) Data collection from articles from books, journals, academic articles, and research articles 2) Content analysis and synthesis 3) The data obtained from the analysis was used as a base for thinking about the content synthesis framework for obtaining the Business Continuity Plan for Tour Operators in a Crisis of COVID 19 in Thailand.

Literature Review Business Continuity Planning (BCP)
-Business Continuity Planning‖ (BCP) aims to prepare, procure and maintain, control, and competence for the organization's overall management that can continue during a disruption. The International Labor Organization's report [5] addresses four pillars (4Ps) models to develop BCPs: People (safety and security), Process (internal processes such as supply chain, logistics planning), Profit (management of risks to products/services) and Partnerships. With the massive loss of life and capital, the COVID-19 epidemic demonstrates society's incredible ability to stand together to face unprecedented and insurmountable challenges. [6] A Business Continuity Plan (BCP) is a plan that has processes in managing the business to be carried on continuously. Without interruption Even though the business is in an unusual state or in a critical state Experiencing threats from external and internal factors Which are problems and obstacles to business operations The Business Continuity Plan (BCP) that adheres to ISO22301 standards following the business continuity management standard consists of 10 steps used in the preparation of BCP as follows: [7] Step 1) Set goals, scopes, and teams.
Step 2) Key Activities and Recovery Goals Step 3) Essentials for the restoration of core activities Step 4) Risk Assessment -Understand the disaster situation.
Step 5) Prevention and mitigation.
Step 6) Urgent response in the event of a disaster.
Step 7) Business Continuity Strategy for a Fast Recovery Step 8) Be financially prepared.
Step 9) Practice to optimize the BCP and Step 10) continuous review and development.

Business Continuity Planning (BCP) for Tourism
The Cayman Islands Department of Tourism from Kenya had set a Business continuity planning tool for their tourism businesses. Lead and guide for their tourism micro, small, and medium tourism companies.
[8] -We are now in an unprecedented business environment for the Cayman Islands, where many of our tourism businesses are facing the closure of our borders in March. -While it cannot be guessed, it is likely to be a catalyst for the safety of our country and the well-being of our people. Every travel business has to plan for a major disruption beyond hurricane season. In the first half of 2020, we will face earthquakes, fires, and global pandemics. Their Business continuity planning consisted of Business profile, key product &service, employee & essential roles-tasks, key customers, Business impact analysis, Recovery plan, COVID-19 business resumption strategy, Emergency response, etc. For Tasmania Business Continuity Plan, in general, starting with 1) identify damages that may affect the business. 2)Incorporate these mitigation strategies into your business continuity plan. 3) Get insurance with the level of coverage appropriate for the business. [9] Emergency information, communication, preparation, and recovery planning are provided for staff, business visitors, and guests.

Business Continuity Planning (BCP) for Post-COVID
Business continuity planning for the epidemic. It should begin early and focus on 4-stage epidemic planning using the PPRR model: 1) prevention, 2) preparation, 3) response, and 4) recovery [10]. The proposed actions should be consistent with the workplace relationships and existing health and safety frameworks. In the planning stage, you must: 1) Identify core services and essentials to maintain supply chains. 2)Identify staffing arrangements such as telecommunication, succession planning, and skill crossings.3) Protect the health of employees. 4) Develop communication strategies for employees, customers and suppliers. 5)Consider financial implications such as cash flow, cost increases, and insurance coverage. 6)Make contingency plans for the unexpected. Schedule tests and plan improvements. There were four elements for business continuity plan: 1) Risk Management Plan 2) Business Impact Analysis 3) Incident Response Plan and 4) Recovery Plan. [11] Developing a business continuity plan for the post-COVID 19 was a way to ensure that the organization could continue operating even when the business environment in crisis. From the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Many organizations use a hybrid infrastructure that integrates an on-premises platform and the cloud or the internet. [12] It's a great way to take advantage of new technology while reducing costs. However, it also means that you need to develop a plan to ensure employees have continued access to the tools and information they need to do their job, even when working remotely. COVID-19 Business Continuity Plan: Five ways to reshape a global company require forward-looking and proactive decisions to maintain business continuity and build resilience. [13] 1) Continuously prioritize public safety and participation. Keeping employees safe and well-being in the workplace was essential. Companies must start or expand flexible work arrangements and other policies that allow people to work remotely and safely. New resources used in work must be allocated. Besides, companies must establish consistent communication. 2) Adjust strategy for business continuity. Most businesses are likely to experience significant disruptions in their normal operations and face lower operating performance throughout the COVID-19 crisis at the beginning of this crisis. It is important for companies. Evaluate short-term liquidity. Companies will want to instill discipline in monitoring short-term cash flows to anticipate cash flow pressures and intervene promptlywww.psychologyandeducation.net strict discipline in working capital, especially debtor collection and inventory building management. 3) Communicate with relevant stakeholders. Clear, transparent, and timely communication is essential to building a platform to transform the business and to receive ongoing support from customers, employees, suppliers, creditors, investors, and regulators. 4) Make the most of government support policies. The central and local governments in China have issued financial, social security, and tax-related policies to companies, including the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) interim policy on refinancing recently listed companies in the United States, United Kingdom. Moreover, many other developed countries have announced amendments to tax and financing policies. 5) Build flexibility to prepare for the new normal. Once the COVID-19 outbreak is controlled, companies need to review and renew their Business Continuity Plan (BCP) to assess how existing BCPs are working. If there are defects, companies must identify the root cause, such as the timeliness of their actions-lack of infrastructure. Labor shortages or environmental issues outside the company need to rethink their internal approaches, based on the lessons learned and a solid contingency plan, to build resilience and respond to future crises.

Crisis Management and Tour Operators
Crisis according to the Dictionary of the Royal Academy of Sciences (1999), meaning that the term "Critical to danger" is defined as "critical event," while the Oxford dictionary describes the meaning of crisis as "A time of serious trouble." Alternatively, the dangerous moment or is a time to make a decision.‖ Crisis types are classified into two categories: 1) Natural crisis and 2) Human-induced crises. From research on the topic of the leadership of tour operators in crisis management and the formulation of modern tourism strategies to create creative competitiveness in the region of the Thai tourism industry, [19] The study found that from the past to the present leadership of tour operators in the Thai tourism industry in terms of crisis management, it was found that there was a lack of vision and creativity in proper management with situations. There were limitations in planning, long-term solutions, and no proactive plan. Integration in solving the problem is not yet fully possible and did not receive effective cooperation and coordination with stakeholders. However, the future leadership of tour operators in the Thai tourism industry in terms of crisis management, the results of the research showed that leaders who are entrepreneurs in the Thai tourism industry must be creative, proactive, seeking new markets, broad vision, knowledge. Having the ability to resolve crisis situations by making urgent decisions, coordinating with the public and private sectors to assist tourists affected by the crisis. Build cooperation with the media and using modern technology in terms of strategic leadership in crisis management of the Thai tourism industry, leaders have to be responsible for making quick decisions. Strengthen participation in Both the public and private sectors. For the future tourism industry regional creative competition, the results were found that the Leadership of tour operators in the Thai tourism industry must be brave enough to make decisions. Have the talent to solve problems immediately. Be creative and adapt quickly.

The Impact of Covid-19 Outbreak on the Tourism
Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on international tourism [22]1) The world is facing a global health, social, and economic emergency due to the COVID-19 epidemic.2) Travel and tourism are among the most affected sectors, with a sharp drop in foreign demand amid global travel restrictions, including many of its borders closed.3) As a result of the COVID-19 epidemic, international tourism export revenues were $ 935 billion, more than 10 times the loss of 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. 4) Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% drop in arrivals in January-October 2020, the Middle East dropped 73%, while Africa is down 69% in the ten months. International arrivals in both Europe and America decreased by 68%.5). In contrast, international travel demand continues to decline; domestic tourism continues to grow in large markets such as China and Russia, where demand for most domestic air travel has returned to pre-COVID levels.6) Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to drop 70% to 75% for the full year 2020, meaning international tourism will return 30 years ago.7) The estimated decline in international tourism in 2020 is equivalent to an estimated 1 billion loss of tourists and $ 1. From provincial economic activity (GPP), it was found that overall, Thailand had a 22% dependence on trade and tourism on GDP, including the country. Additionally, 6.9 million people are employed, which is expected to reduce the total income by more than 140 billion baht. The Thai government has stepped up remediation measures for those affected by the economy according to the level of business impact in each area, which employs 6.9 million people, including measures to help with the cost of living and all.

Discussions
Factors that will facilitate the recovery of tourism in the crisis of tourism operators. There are five things to consider:1) Pandemic: How long will the pandemic last, and when will there be a cure or vaccine? 2) Removal of travel restrictions and travel blocking measures When and how will countries begin to relax restrictions? How will social distancing rules affect tourism supply? 3) Consumer and business confidence: How long will it take consumers to make repeat trips? How will travel behavior change? 4) Economic impact: How deep will the global recession be, and how long will it last? How will consumer spending decisions be?5) Government measures: How are government measures supporting tourism?

Conclusion
In conclusion, the study found that the business continuity plan for tourism operators in the face of the COVID 19 crisis in Thailand. Internal factors related to their organization should be considered, and also external factors, namely, within the organization itself, should have a measure of supervision and risk management. There must be a step-by-step business continuity plan in critical conditions. This can be summarized as follows. Step1) Set goals, scopes, and teams. Step2) Key Activities and Recovery Goals. Step3) Essentials for the restoration of core activities.
Step 4) Risk Assessment -Understand the disaster and crisis.
Step 5) Prevention and mitigation.
Step 6) Urgent response in the event of a disaster.
Step 7) Business Continuity Strategy for a Fast Recovery Step 8) Be financially prepared.
Step 9) Practice to optimize the BCP, and Step 10) continuous review and development. While Business continuity planning for the epidemic COVID 19 outbreak focusing on the PPRR model: 1) Prevention, 2) Preparation, 3) Response, and 4) Recovery corresponding to the efficiency communication, maintenance of health and hygiene, digital and technology linkage, social distancing and compliance with the COVID-19 control measures following the policies of the respective governments. Moreover, there are four elements for the business continuity plan: 1) Risk Management Plan, 2) Business Impact Analysis, 3) Incident Response Plan, and 4) Recovery Plan.