Use Box - Jenkins strategy for making a time sample to forecasting to Oil prices

Abstract

The strategy of Box-Jenkins in the field of time models building is one of the most important models which take interest to predicting in time series by using past and current values ​​ for predicting in the short term only, which also known as the Box Jenkins model.  

This study aims to analyze the time series of oil prices for the period from 01/03/2017 to 08/01/2021 by using the Box-Jenkins strategy in time analysis that includes (diagnosis, estimation, model suitability testing, prediction) to find the appropriate model for predicting oil prices in Iraq by depending on the daily data of recorded prices.

The results of the application showed that the appropriate and efficient model is the ARIMA (2,1,2) integrated self-regression model.