Measuring and analyzing the determinant factors of poverty in the Iraqi Economy for the period (1996-2019)

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Mustafa Mohammed Oubied Al-falahe, et. al.


The research aims to measure and analyze the phenomenon of poverty in Iraq as a problem facing all developed and developing countries by investigating the economic, social and political causes of poverty in the Iraqi economy. The importance of the research is that poverty is one of the serious problems facing society as a result of its consequences, such as social problems such as begging, delinquency, drug addiction and crimes, as well as the low level of health, education and other problems. The research relied on the descriptive analytical approach in the context of economic theories and the standard quantitative approach based on the economics and the application of modern standard methods based on the methodology of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and annual data for the period (1996- 2019) were used to measure and analyze the relationship in the two terms  short and long between the absolute poverty line after deducting the value of the ration card and some macroeconomic variables represented by (average per capita share of GDP at constant prices for the year 2007, the disparity in income distribution, unemployment rate, inflation rate, population density, The percentage of spending on health services, and the percentage of spending on education), The research found that there is a long-term balance relationship (joint integration) between the variables studies according to the Bound Test methodology, and the results of the standard analysis also demonstrated that the value of the error correction parameter was negative and significant as it reached (-1.25), meaning that the deviation of the previous years from the long term equilibrium is correcting by (125%), and the test fit the model have been free of all standards problems and its high ability to predict according to the test of the coefficient (Theil) , in addition to achieving the property of structural of the model parameters estimated in the short and long terms.                                                                                                 

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